Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - What if 2% inflation remains elusive?

15 April 2024
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  • US inflation's bumpy ride to 2% has pushed back rate cut expectations substantially. We are less hawkish than the oscillating markets, and see 150bps of rate cuts during 2024/25.
  • We are revising up our 2024 average US headline inflation forecast by 30bps to 3.3%.
  • We expect a shallow rate cut cycle, short of a major demand shock in the coming 18 months.
  • Various measures of inflation converging toward 2.5% would be sufficient for the Fed to ease.
  • Two rate cuts in 2024 are on the cards, in early 3Q and 4Q.
  • As growth and inflation slows in 2025, an additional 100bps of rate cuts will follow, in our view.

 

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