Macro Insights Weekly - Slowdown cometh

Markets are becoming concerned that a cyclical slowdonwn could be around the corner. This is particularly the case for the world's largest economy. But we don't see makings of a hard landing.
Granted, there are severl coners of incipient weakness in the US economy
Signals from hiring, retails sales, and PMI are negative
Sharp curve steepening and equity market selloff are harbingers for slowdown ahead.
It is crucial to maintain perspective. GDP, trade, and labour force figures are not alarming
We are not joining the herd in pricing in 75-100 bps in rate cuts in 2H24. 50bps would be adequate.