Macro Insights Weekly - Support for US consumers

US consumption outlook is critical for Asia's exporters, as Americans account for 30% of global personal spending. Going into the final stretch of 2024, things look good.
Consumer confidence is elevated, helped by moderating inflation and a strong labour market.
Fiscal and monetary policy are both supportive of the cycle.
Consumer debt is low, rates are coming down, and stock/property gains are substantial.
Oil price spike could dent confidence, but overall commodity supply/demand picture is favourable.
Key risk: "melt-up" of asset prices and spending, which could lead the Fed to scale back rate cuts.