Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - Time to shed complacency

25 March 2024
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  • Fed communication after its March meeting cheered the markets. Expectations of sizeable rate cuts in 2H24 are fuelling record highs in asset markets. What are the risks to this narrative?
  • Rallies are not restricted to the US. Stocks in Europe and Asia are also buoyant.
  • Asia's exports have turned a corner, supporting regional growth outlook.
  • But it would take only one or two more sticky inflation prints to damage rate cut expectations.
  • Some real economic data stand on the edge, between "resilien" and "weak".
  • We think the markets are not pricing sufficiently election and security risks.

 

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