Macro Insights Weekly - A year without rate cuts?

Over three trading days last week, global fixed income markets swung from despair to hope. This type of volatility is a marker of things to come as the 2024 rate cut scenario is priced in and out.
We think there is a room for rate cut as inflation and jobs momentum is on track to fade.
Stickiness of inflation in recent months could fade on the back of easing energy and rental costs.
Parts of the jobs market are showing early signs of cooling, but overall trend is still positive.
There is a 25% chance, in our view, that inflation and jobs momentum doesn't ease.
Then expect considerable bond and current volatiliy as pricing would shift toward no rate cuts.