ASEAN-6: Watching weather risks

El Niño is expected to strengthen in 2H, especially in the winter months
Onset could be a stagflationary risk
The economic impact will be dictated by its severity
Besides hurting agriculture production and incomes, adverse weather could slow ongoing disinflation
We compare the ASEAN-6 countries on a few vulnerability metrics
Philippines is seen the most at risk, whilst Indonesia fares better on our comparative scale
Implications for forecasts: We maintain our inflation and monetary policy projections for the year