Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - Impact of Trump's first week in office

27 January 2025
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  • US President Trump unleashed a flurry of executive orders in his first week back in office. We worry that the markets' complacency about the macro impact will prove to be wrong.
  • Rallies in stocks and bonds point to receding fear of inflation or fiscal slippage.
  • USD selloff suggests tariffs will prove to benign.
  • But America First policy could meet with global retaliation.
  • US macro cycle is not a conducive for a bout of policy fog and possible overheating.
  • We will watch for last week's complacency to be reversed shortly.

 

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