Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - The coming trade shock and Asia

20 January 2025
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  • The US is about to ramp up tariffs and other trade restrictions on allies and foes alike. How is Asia placed to deal with the impending shock?
  • Average tariff rate on all imports could more than triple from the average of past half-century.
  • This has strong near-term inflationary implications for the US.
  • Exchange rates would also likely adjust to the terms of trade shock.
  • Asian FX has already sold off against the USD.
  • More could be in store, especially for those with high export share to the US.

 

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