Insights

Macro Insights Weekly - US elections and markets

29 July 2024
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  • Using 50+years of data, we analyse the relationship between election outcomes and asset returns. Regardless of the winner, elections tend to help equities, while largely neutral for USD and bonds.
  • The DXY appreciates mildly before the elections and tends to be flat thereafter.
  • The most robust finding of the study is related to the S&P500, which deos well during elections.
  • It does better in the lead-up to a Republican win, while doing very well after a Democratic win.
  • The bond markets sells off a tad before a Republic win and rallies a tad before a Democratic win.
  • Given latest data, we have revised up marginally our US GDP growth projection for 2024 (2.3%).

 

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