Macro Insights Weekly - US elections and markets

Using 50+years of data, we analyse the relationship between election outcomes and asset returns. Regardless of the winner, elections tend to help equities, while largely neutral for USD and bonds.
The DXY appreciates mildly before the elections and tends to be flat thereafter.
The most robust finding of the study is related to the S&P500, which deos well during elections.
It does better in the lead-up to a Republican win, while doing very well after a Democratic win.
The bond markets sells off a tad before a Republic win and rallies a tad before a Democratic win.
Given latest data, we have revised up marginally our US GDP growth projection for 2024 (2.3%).